According to reporting from The Information, the OpenAI CEO warned employees in an internal memo that the company is heading into “tough times,” with revenue growth potentially dropping to around 5%, a sharp contrast to the triple-digit expansion the company previously enjoyed.
Google’s Gemini 3 Pro resets expectations
Gemini 3 Pro’s performance has positioned Google as the current pace-setter in large-scale AI, particularly in pre-training efficiency and multimodal reasoning. Altman, who has typically projected confidence bordering on inevitability, admitted internally that Google has “done excellent work across the board recently.” The memo frames this as a pivotal moment: the company that once felt unstoppable now needs to “catch up quickly” and make “bold strategic decisions”, even if that means temporarily falling behind competitors.
A morale shift inside OpenAI
Employees reportedly reacted with a mix of appreciation for the transparency and concern over what it signals. Mentions of a potential hiring freeze underscore that the tone inside the company has shifted. OpenAI is simultaneously pushing ahead on a new model, codenamed Shallotpeat, rumoured to improve error correction in early training phases, though details remain scarce.
Revenue expectations cool
The most tangible sign of a slowdown is financial. Internal forecasts indicate that revenue growth by 2026 could fall to 5–10%, despite earlier projections of $13 billion in revenue by 2025. This is especially striking given Altman’s previous stance that profitability was a distant priority; he once projected a cumulative loss of $74 billion by 2028. But with Anthropic reportedly targeting break-even around the same timeframe, OpenAI may find itself reevaluating its appetite for long-term losses.
Enterprise AI demand is flattening
The broader generative-AI market is also showing signs of cooling. Microsoft delayed deeper AI integrations into Azure due to infrastructure constraints, and Salesforce is scaling back GPT pilots that failed to progress beyond experimentation. Analysts estimate that roughly 95% of enterprise AI initiatives never make it to full deployment. Meanwhile, data-center capital expenditures are approaching $400 billion – quadruple previous cycles – without proportional revenue returns, according to Morgan Stanley.
For OpenAI, this combination of rising infrastructure costs, slower enterprise adoption, and renewed pressure from Google forms a significant strategic crossroads. The company that had become accustomed to launching products into insatiable demand now has to operate in a market where enthusiasm alone no longer guarantees adoption.


